KINSHASA, Congo – Military and police forces deployed across the capital of Congo on Monday, as protesters vowed to take to the streets if President Joseph Kabila stays in office beyond the official expiration of his term at midnight.
Many people in Congo – the largest country in sub-Saharan Africa – are bracing for a violent clash between Kabila’s opponents and security forces. In September, when the last major anti-government demonstrations were held, about 50 people were killed, according to human-rights groups. This time could be worse, experts worry.
Elections were supposed to be held in November but have been postponed. Kabila and his political allies have suggested that he must stay in power until at least 2018, which they say is the soonest a vote could be held because of the cost and logistical problems of holding an election in this vast country.
The country’s constitutional court has declared that Kabila can stay in office until the new elections. But opposition activists worry that the president, who has been in power for 15 years, is trying to extend his term through extra-constitutional means.
At Kinshasa University on Monday, protesters waved red cards calling for Kabila to step down. Security forces blocked access to the university, turning journalists away. No violence was reported there or elsewhere in the capital. In the eastern city of Goma, at least 41 protesters were arrested, according to Human Rights Watch.
Over the past week, Catholic bishops mediated talks between Kabila’s supporters and a patchwork of the regime’s political opponents. But on Saturday, participants announced that no agreement had been reached, emboldening the mostly young men who have said they will take to the streets en masse.
Kabila is among a growing number of African leaders who have angled to extend their terms by either changing the constitution, delaying elections or holding elections marred by allegations of rigging. Angola’s José Eduardo dos Santos, 74, has ruled for 37 years. Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, 92, has been in power for 30 years. More recently, the presidents of Burundi and the neighboring Congo Republic both announced plans to extend power, igniting domestic crises.
But the stakes are particularly high in Congo, which suffered through a civil war that killed about 5 million people between 1997 and 2003. The country remains the site of the largest United Nations peacekeeping mission in the world, with about 20,000 troops.
“There is a grave risk that Congo could descend into widespread violence and chaos in the coming days, with potentially volatile repercussions across the region,” said Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch.
Peacekeepers will be on high alert this week, according to U.N. spokesman Charles Bambara, who said that the mission is “preparing for the worst-case scenario.” The government has said it will shut down access to social networks, which protesters use to mobilize.
On the streets of Lemba, a neighborhood in Kinshasa, local opposition leader Jean Claude Mwamba was preparing to confront the regime despite the violent reaction he anticipated. Mwamba led a small protest on Saturday, with young men holding signs that read “Farewell, Kabila.” He predicted the protest would grow larger this week.
“There’s no security, no jobs, no respect of the constitution,” he said. “For us, there is only one option – that Kabila leaves.”
Many Congolese agree that Kabila has failed to improve the lives of most of the country’s citizens, even as he and his family appear to have grown wealthy.
A recent Bloomberg investigation linked 70 companies, many in Congo’s mining industry, to the family. Meanwhile, about two-thirds of the country’s 77 million people earn less than $1.90 per day.
“The constitutional discussion will soon be overshadowed by the struggle to remove Kabila through protests in the streets and repression by the security forces,” said Jason Stearns, head of the New York-based Congo Research Group.
Leaving power would ostensibly endanger Kabila’s large investments, particularly as his coalition has not yet put forth a viable successor.
This month, Washington and the European Union announced sanctions against nine senior Kabila officials who they said were involved in repression.
For now, the sanctions don’t appear to have reduced the likelihood of violent demonstrations. The Congolese government has emphasized the strength and loyalty of security forces.
“We have the police, the army and the intelligence services working for us,” said a spokesman for the ruling coalition, André-Alain Atundu. “Maybe there will be turmoil for two or three days, but eventually the [protesters] will get hungry.”
Kabila, 45, took power in 2001, after his father, President Laurent Kabila, was assassinated. Congo, which became independent from Belgium in 1960, still hasn’t had a peaceful handover of power.
As the son of a rebel, Joseph Kabila grew up in far-flung parts of Congo and Tanzania, an experience that defines him, according to those close to him.
“He was born and grew up in the bush,” said Aubin Minaku, president of the national assembly and a senior figure in Kabila’s coalition. “He knows what it means to struggle.”
But even Kabila’s political allies are not sure what will come next for the country. Kabila has said he doesn’t intend to change the constitution – which he would have to do to run for another term, whenever elections are held. But will he stay true to that pledge?
“In reality, no one can answer that question,” Minaku said.
Featured Image: Reuters
(c) 2016, The Washington Post · Kevin Sieff
